BUAFL Predict-O-Matic's Week 17 Predictions

Loughborough Aces (8-2) @ Newcastle Raiders (10-0)

So it's down to the final 2 teams in the North. Nobody should be shocked to see these sides vying for a shot at the bowl, considering both their recent histories of success. I personally couldn't see the Aces beating a solid Stallions side and have paid the price with my 100% playoff record. Loughborough showed class and a hell of a lot of guts to see them through to this matchup. Perhaps most impressively they held stud RB Ed Goka to under 3 yards a carry. But the Raiders are a different kettle of fish and the question remains can the Aces replicate this success against Newcastle's potent and frustrating wing Offence.

On paper everyone should know how to stop the wing. It's teaching and drilling into players not bite until you locate the ball, to look for pulling lineman, keeping lower than normal in the middle and so on. I'm sure the Aces will know the theory of how to stop that explosive Newcastle offence, but if they decided to implement it will they be able to implement it in time? Another factor is the adjustments made by both teams. Newcastle are used to having their base offence slowed or shut down by the time the 2nd or 3rd quarter rolls around. Their strength lies in the adjustment they make on the fly, these are the changes that simply nullify defences. The bottom line is that almost every defence Newcastle have faced this season they've trumped.

So what the Predict-o-matic is trying to compute is whether the Loughborough coaches will try and implement a new run stop scheme adjusted to match the wing? Or simply stick with the set-up they are comfortable with and that worked so effectively against the vaulted Staffs run game?

Newcastle's defence was as stingy as ever last week. According to my robo-scout the Pyro's scores, though no doubt deserved, came late in the final quarter when the Raiders were playing 2nd and 3rd stringers. Therefore to my processor the game was as good as a shut-out. Loughborough's offence, on the other hand, surprised me, sustaining and finishing drives for so many scores against a solid defence. The Raiders are struggling for depth at the moment due to some unfortunate injuries which will come into play if this game goes to the line. But if the Raiders are as physically fit as all Coach Johnson's teams seem to be I can see them pulling through. However if the long season has finally caught up with them look for Loughborough to gain the upper hand.

In the end, perhaps inevitably, im going to say this will be a close game. But remember the Raiders will determined not to let another chance at the bowl slip through their finger after falling at the penultimate hurdle last year. This may well be the edge they need.